Spatio-temporal changes of hydrothermal conditions and suitable habitat of Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Noten) Swingle in China under climate change

Yanli Xia1, Yuxia Yang2, Ting Li1, Jian Ding3, Ke Xu4, Shiliang Xu1, Yihe Wang1, Xuchen Fan1, Guofu Mei5, Bo Yu5, Jianming Yi6, and Rulin Wang7, 8*
Finger citron (Citrus medica L. var. sarcodactylis (Hoola van Nooten) Swingle;Rutaceae: Citrus) is an important plant for both medicine and food. Due to the lack of suitability analysis, many problems have arisen in its planting. According to the daily observation data, Kriging interpolation was selected to spatialize precipitation and temperature data. MaxEnt and ArcGIS were applied to simulate the suitable areas of finger citron in China from the perspectives of bioclimate, soil, topographic factors and human activities in 2050s and 2090s. Results showed that temperature annual range (Bio7), annual precipitation (Bio12), human footprint (Hf), elevation (El) and precipitation seasonality (Bio15) were identified as the dominant environmental variables related to the distribution of finger citron. Spatiotemporal distribution of annual precipitation (Bio12) showed that in the future, the precipitation in South China tends to decrease first (2050s) and then increase (2090s). The spatio-temporal analysis of temperature annual range (Bio7) showed that the 20-30 ºC region was relatively stable in the Sichuan Basin and the middle and lower reaches of the Pearl River Basin. Under the future climate change scenarios, the total suitable area showed a significant increase trend in 2090s, and the change of most, moderately and poorly suitable habitats showed no obvious law. Under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 scenarios, the centroid of the most suitable habitat of finger citron would move to the northwest, southeast and southwest respectively. Our results can effectively carry out to promote the recovery of its population.
Keywords: Citrus medica var. sarcodactylis, climate change, finger citron, hydrothermal conditions, MaxEnt, spatio-temporal changes, suitable habitat.
1Chengdu University, School of Food and Bioengineering, Chengdu 610106, PR China.2Sichuan Provincial Key Laboratory of Quality and Innovation Research of Chinese Materia Medica, Sichuan Academy of Traditional Chinese Medicine Sciences, Chengdu 610041, PR China. 3Sichuan Science and Technology Exchange Center, Chengdu 610016, Sichuan, PR China.4Sichuan Horticultural Crop Technology Extension Station, Chengdu 610041, Sichuan, PR China.5Dazhou Dachuan Agricultural and Rural Bureau, Dazhou 635000, Sichuan, PR China.6Guang 'an Cash Crop Technology Extension Station, Guang 'an 638500, Sichuan, PR China.7Sichuan Provincial Rural Economic Information Center, Chengdu 610072, Sichuan, China.8Water-Saving Agriculture in Southern Hill Area Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province, Chengdu 610066, Sichuan, PR China.*Corresponding author (wrl_1986_1@163.com).