Evaluation of the Impact of Climatic Change on the Economic Value of Land in Agricultural Systems in Chile

Jorge González U.1*, and Roberto Velasco H.1

Climatic change will affect crop yields and management. By the year 2050, the mean temperature could increase by 1.5 ºC; and by the year 2100 between 1.0 to 3.5 ºC. There are few studies on this subject in Chile. At the international level, estimated climatic changes in temperate and tropical zones could negatively affect wheat (Triticum vulgare L.) and corn (Zea mays L.) production, as examples. The objective of this study was to determine the relationship between agricultural systems and climatic change by using the Ricardian Method. Specific objectives were to evaluate and quantify the relationship of climatic variables (precipitation and temperature) with economic variables under several realities of farms, to simulate the impact of scenarios of climatic change, to propose general orientations of adaptation and to evaluate the Ricardian Method with Chilean data. Economic and productive information from farmers belonging to Technological Transfer Groups (GTT) of the Agricultural Research Institute (INIA) was collected. The Ricardian Method explained 37.6% of land value variation. The highest values were in areas with moderate temperatures and precipitation. Temperature had a lower relationship to land value than precipitation. Under specific conditions (type of producer, irrigation, extension) were detected behaviors that require further analysis. Upon simulating change of temperature and precipitation, the negative impacts on land value tended to be of lower magnitude than in other warmer regions. A tendency was observed for increased temperature to be beneficial, and a neutral to positive effect with less precipitation. The outputs could initially guide specific strategies of adaptation and mitigation.

Keywords: climate change, Ricardian method, land productivity, land value, policy of adaptation
1 Instituto de Investigaciones Agropecuarias, Quilamapu Regional Research Center, Casilla 426, Chillán, Chile. E-mail: jgonzale@inia.cl *Corresponding author.